Estimated Total Expenditure on Healthcare and Long-Term Care for the Elderly and Projections for Tax Revenues

Mr Gerald Giam Yean Song asked the Minister for Health in light of our ageing population (a) what is the Government's estimated total expenditure on healthcare and long-term care for the elderly in 2012; and (b) what are the Government's projections for 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 at current birth rates and without immigration for (i) tax revenues at current tax rates; and (ii) total Government expenditure on healthcare and long-term care for the elderly at current subsidy rates and at estimated enhanced subsidy rates respectively.

Mr Gan Kim Yong: MOH's budget in FY2012 is an estimated $4.7 billion, about 20% higher than last year's expenditure. The bulk of this goes to patient subsidies, building infrastructure and developing new services, programmes and manpower capabilities.

As a significant part of healthcare expenditure, like infrastructure and manpower, is shared across the entire user base, it is not possible to provide a precise breakdown on the amount that is spent specifically on the elderly only.

Under the Ministry's Healthcare 2020 plan to ensure accessible, affordable and quality healthcare for all Singaporeans, we had earlier announced initiatives to increase subsidies, expand capacity, increase salaries and invest in the training of healthcare staff, better integrate care, and step up health promotion programmes.

Taking these efforts into consideration, we project that the Government's overall expenditure on health will double over five years, and may reach up to 3.5% of GDP by 2030, from the current 1.6%. These projections are sensitive to factors, such as economic growth, population growth, changing medical technology, healthcare consumption patterns, as well as changes to healthcare services delivery models, among others. We expect the rising proportion of elderly in our population to be one key factor driving this growth, given the greater need for healthcare services among the elderly and the generally longer period of care needed.

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Currently, the Government's tax revenues are between 13% and 14% of GDP. We expect it to remain at around this level if we hold tax rates constant.