INCREASE IN ERP GANTRIES AND HOURS

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INCREASE IN ERP GANTRIES AND HOURS:

(Social and economic impact): 9.

Ms Irene Ng Phek Hoong asked the Minister for Transport whether his Ministry has conducted a study to assess the wider social and economic impact of increasing the ERP gantries and hours on (i) work patterns; (ii) businesses affected within ERP zones; and (iii) family life and bonding.

The Minister for Transport (Mr Raymond Lim Siang Keat): Sir, there are many factors affecting businesses, people’s work patterns and family life, and it is not possible to separate them, and determine conclusively to what extent each one of them has played a part. For example, businesses could be affected by economic conditions, consumer confidence and even the weather. So while retailers within ERP zones have given feedback that ERP is one of the reasons their businesses have been affected, they also recognise that their business outside ERP hours has also been poor. Retailers elsewhere outside the ERP zones have also reported reduced business in recent months.

However, from time to time, LTA does gather trend data to see if it is possible to draw inferences from them. One example is its study of the impact on retail sales in Orchard Road, where we implemented ERP on Saturdays and extended ERP to 8 pm on weekdays in October 2005. The study showed that growth of retail sales in Orchard Road was in fact faster after ERP expansion than before. Retail sales had grown by about 4% in the year before ERP was expanded. In the year after ERP expansion, retail sales grew by

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9%, more than twice the growth a year ago. This compares more favourably with businesses outside of the CBD, where the growth in retail sales had remained more or less the same over the period in question. So the findings in this particular study of the impact of ERP on retail sales would suggest that ERP, contrary to popular belief, has a positive effect on businesses. These findings mirror the experience in London, where a similar study on the congestion pricing system there, showed that business became better after congestion pricing was introduced compared to before.

As with business, there are also many factors affecting work patterns and family life. However, even where ERP affects travel patterns in that some choose to avoid, say, the evening ERP on the CTE, there is also a flip side to the story. Others who were previously unable to get home early at all because of traffic jams are now able to do so if they wish, and can plan ahead with a much higher degree of certainty because of ERP. For example, after the gantry on the CTE before the PIE exit was implemented in November 2007, traffic volume between 6 and 7 pm fell by about 700 vehicles. But traffic speeds for the remaining 7,000 vehicles that continued to use the CTE increased from 34 kph to 50 kph. So 7,000 drivers now enjoy the benefit of a smoother and more predictable commute home. If we do not have ERP to deal with congestion, then motorists, and even large numbers of bus commuters, will get stuck in traffic jams, spend a long time on the road getting to work, and not be able to get home on time. This is hardly conducive to work and family life. By having ERP, we can be assured that commuters will get to their destinations on time, and give commuters a choice, rather than leaving everyone with no choice but to endure the daily grind of gridlocked traffic.

Ms Irene Ng Phek Hoong (Tampines): I thank the Minister for a very capable

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answer. I just want to ask the Minister, despite the Government's explanation on the need for ERP, there are some people who continue to believe that ERP is a revenue generating exercise of the Government. It causes hardship for motorists, rather than to reduce congestion in some locations. Can I ask the Minister how he arrived at the optimal speed level of 20 kph to 30 kph before ERP is imposed? Would the Minister consider allowing congestion to be a major problem and a significant inconvenience to motorists before ERP gantries are erected? This would help to persuade motorists that there is indeed a major congestion problem rather than pre-empting the problem by putting up gantries that are below 20 kph.

Mr Raymond Lim Siang Keat: ERP is not a revenue measure. I said that many times in this House, and we have got to just look at the facts. Since we implemented ERP in 1998, we have bought down vehicle ownership taxes. If you look at it before the latest round, the forgone revenue for the Government is about $1.2 billion every year and against that, the ERP collected was a hundred million dollars. As I said, if motorists were to drive less, the Government would be happy to collect less. It is really a congestion measure.

The 20 kph to 30 kph optimal speed range that she is talking about is based on empirical study. We had a team from NTU study the speed-flow curve, where below a certain threshold level, we start to get stop-start conditions. We determine the threshold level based on the road capacity and the travel patterns. It was not a number that we just plucked out from the air and said, "This is the number that we are going to put in.". This study was done 10 years ago. At that time, the team ascertained that the 20 kph was the threshold level, and if we went to, say, 19 or 18 kph, we started getting stop-start traffic. When we did the current

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review for the Land Transport Master Plan in January this year, we got the same team to study it again. They looked at it and they felt that 20 kph was still the threshold level.

We do not install ERP gantries pre-emptively. We actually study the traffic over a sustained period of time. So if you travel around Singapore, there are some roads which are not congested, there is no ERP gantry there. Only if the fall in speed is sustained over a period of time, we would put up the ERP. So it is not a pre-emptive measure.

Mr Speaker: Ms Ng, last question from you.

Ms Irene Ng Phek Hoong: Can I ask the Minister to clarify what he means by "sustained period of time" because, sometimes, the traffic will fluctuate as well, especially the Singapore River Line where motorists complained that actually there was no real congestion?

Mr Raymond Lim Siang Keat: We studied over several consecutive quarters, two/three quarters, to see whether or not this is sustained. In the case of the review that we did in January, we studied the travel patterns for over close to two years. So if you were to look back, before we did put up the gantries, there were a lot of complaints that the traffic in the CBD area, the Singapore River Line and also in the Bugis/Marina area was getting bad. So it was not something that was done pre-emptively, but rather studied over a long period of time.