RISING SEA LEVELS

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RISING SEA LEVELS:

(Measures to monitor effects and impact on Singapore): 5.

Dr Lam Pin Min asked the Minister for the Environment and Water Resources in view of the rising sea levels due to climate change, what long-term measures are contemplated to protect Singapore's coastline and to avoid major catastrophes.

6.

Mr Low Thia Khiang:

Mr Low Thia Khiang asked the Minister for the Environment and Water Resources whether his Ministry has assessed the recent findings that the Greenland ice sheet is melting faster than expected and what impact, if any, would these findings have on Singapore.

Mr Low Thia Khiang asked the Minister for the Environment and Water Resources whether the Government is prepared for a possible rise in sea level and, if so, what measures have been planned in response.

The Minister for the Environment and Water Resources (Assoc. Prof. Dr Yaacob Ibrahim):

Mr Speaker, Sir, with your permission, can I take Question Nos. 5, 6 and 7 together please?

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Mr Speaker: Yes.

Assoc. Prof. Dr Yaacob Ibrahim: Sir, climate change is a global challenge. The direct effects of climate change include shifts in temperature, rainfall patterns, storm surges, and many others. In recent years, many countries have experienced more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events, such as the Hurricane Katrina in the US, Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar and episodes of severe floods in India and China.

The United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected in its Fourth Assessment Report, which was released last year, that climate change could result in sea level rises of between 18 cm and 59 cm by the year 2100. This does not factor in the rapid melting of Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets, as the understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise. Scientists are currently working to better understand and project the rate at which the ice sheets may melt, as well as the resulting impacts.

As a relatively low-lying, densely populated island in the tropics, Singapore is vulnerable to climate change effects like sea level rises, which can lead to inland flooding. However, as a result of our environmental and developmental planning in the past, we already have existing measures in place that significantly reduce our exposure to the risks.

Since 1991, all new reclamation projects have to be built to a level 125 cm above the highest recorded tide level. This requirement is 66 cm more than the IPCC's projected highest sea level rise of 59 cm by the end of the 21st century in the worst case scenario. Singapore is as such well prepared for any further increases in sea level arising from climate

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change within the range of over one metre.

The development of drainage infrastructure in Singapore over the last 30 years has also reduced flood-prone areas from 3,200 ha in the 1970s to 98 ha today. PUB will reduce it to less than 48 ha by 2011 through the development and improvement of drainage infrastructure in Singapore, such as the widening and the deepening of drains and canals. While the objective of this is to reduce the flood-prone areas and alleviate flooding today, the overall enhancement in the drainage system helps to reduce the possibility of upstream flooding when heavy rain coincides with high tide or sea level rise due to climate change. The completion of the Marina Barrage project has also enhanced our flood alleviation capabilities.

However, we cannot be complacent in our efforts. It is important that we continue improving our understanding of the specific effects and impacts of climate change on Singapore. I announced last year that NEA, in consultation with other Government agencies, has commissioned a two-year study to understand the specific implications of climate change in Singapore, based on the IPCC studies. These include sea level and temperature changes, flooding and coastal erosion.

This study into Singapore's vulnerability to climate change is expected to be completed next year. It will help us better understand how Singapore will be affected and what needs to be done to protect Singapore and ensure that we are able to adapt to these impacts. We also continue to monitor closely the developments in scientific understanding of the melting of ice sheets and its impacts. Our study will give us modelling capability to factor in any new scientific findings to assess the localised effects on Singapore. This information will help in reviewing the

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adequacy of the existing adaptation measures and whether further enhancements are needed.

Ms Irene Ng Phek Hoong (Tampines): Sir, given that Singapore is a low-lying island, can I ask the Minister whether there are further moves to study from the Dutch about building dykes, given that we are very vulnerable to flooding?

Assoc. Prof. Dr Yaacob Ibrahim: Sir, there is an inter-agency task force led by MND to review existing infrastructure adaptation measures as part of the overall Government's response to climate change. This task force will look at measures for Singapore to adapt to the sea-level rise through the protection of foreshore and coastal areas.

But as I have mentioned earlier, our reclaimed land today is well above the highest recorded tide, so this will provide some protection against any sea-level rise due to global warming. But this is based on current information. So the task force, when they review their adaptation measures, will consider the findings from the vulnerability study which I have mentioned earlier. The study is not over yet. Once it is over, we will look at it and see whether we need to enhance existing measures or introduce new ones. At the moment, I think the task force is looking at all options.

Dr Lily Neo (Jalan Besar): Mr Speaker, Sir, may I have two supplementary questions please? May I ask the Minister how does he protect Singapore shores against a rising sea-level of 140 cm, a possible figure, according to one international study, and the same figure I posed to him at last year's COS debate on the same issue?

Secondly, the Minister said last year at the COS debate that they have

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commissioned a study to better understand the possible long-term effects and the impacts of climate change on Singapore. He did say that he will get the preliminary reports after one year and, therefore, may I ask him after one year, what are these preliminary reports?

Assoc. Prof. Dr Yaacob Ibrahim: Sir, we have to go by the best available report, and in this case, the IPCC. So I am not sure where the Member has got the figure of 140 cm, but we will be most happy to receive that particular report from her and study it.

We have to go by the IPCC because IPCC is a collection of experts across the world looking at various scenarios and the best estimate in the report, as I have mentioned in my reply, is between 18 cm and 59 cm. But having said that, we will continue to study any further scientific reports, including the one that was reported earlier, which is the question filed by Mr Low and Dr Lam, and we will study all these as part of the vulnerability study.

On her second point as to whether we have completed the interim study, the answer is yes. The findings are preliminary in nature because this is a long-term study. It will take us two years as we need to drill down the IPCC report to our context in Singapore which is located near the Straits of Malacca and South China Sea. From what we can understand, the preliminary findings show that the projection for sea-level rise is between 4 cm and 5 cm per century, and the sea level will increase over the global mean projection of 21 cm to 48 cm.

So based on the preliminary findings, our requirement of 125 cm above the highest recorded tide-level is sufficient to deal with the estimates given by the preliminary findings. With that, we are now going into the second phase of the study where we are going even deeper

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into some other aspects of the effects of climate change on Singapore.

Mr Speaker: Dr Neo, last question.

Dr Lily Neo: Thank you, Mr Speaker. I was asked on where I got my report. I just want to say that this report came from Global Research on Oceans Warming and Rising by International Federation of Environmental Journalists and is done by using data from US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, or NASA, by a German professor.