MASS RAPID TRANSIT (Study of proposal for all-bus system)

Mr Ng Kah Ting asked the Minister for Communications and Minister for Labour whether it was necessary to conduct another study to assess the Hansen Review Team's proposal of an all-bus system; what is the purpose of Phase B of the Study, how long the Study will take and how much it will cost; and whether a firm decision on the MRT will be taken by Government after the Study.

The Minister for Communications and Minister for Labour (Mr Ong Teng Cheong): Mr Speaker, Sir, hon. Members will recall that the Hansen Team confidently concluded in its review last year that MRT is not inevitable. They claimed that a restructured all-bus system deploying a large number of high speed point-to-point express services would be able to cope with our transport needs well into the 1990s, if not forever. At the same time, such a bus system would provide a level of service comparable to the MRT, and at much lower costs.

My Ministry's view is that the Hansen Team did not produce hard and convincing figures to back up their claims. Nor did they examine the operational implications of their all-bus system, such as how it would manage with the large volumes of passenger boardings in the Central Area during the peak hours.

For this reason, we have decided to undertake further quantitative work to establish, once and for all, whether an all-bus system will be able to cope. And if not, at which point in time an MRT would be needed.

The Study will be conducted in two phases, Phase A and Phase B. In Phase A, which will take six months, the Hansen's allbus system will be developed and studied in detail to see if it can be implemented and, if so, with what consequences. Various claims made in support of the all-bus system will also be studied and tested. Phase A Study will cost some $2 1/2 million.

Phase B Study, which will commence at the same time as Phase A Study, will take another two years after the completion of Phase A. It will do a refined analysis. It will also examine the basic MRT system established in Phase Ill Study of the Mass Transit Study to see how it compares with the all-bus system financially, economically and operationally. The cost of this Phase will only be known following the completion of Phase A, at which time a proposal detailing the scope of work to be carried out in Phase B will be submitted by the consultants.

Being a gigantic and complex project with wide all-round implications, the decision to build the MRT can only be taken after all factors have been carefully considered. I am optimistic that the outcome of these studies will be conclusive enough to enable us to arrive at that decision.

Mr Ng Kah Ting (Punggol): Mr Speaker, Sir, if the Review Team's Study is to be conclusive enough, as the Hon. Minister has just pointed out, then could the Hon. Minister assure the House that this will be the final Study before a firm decision on the MRT can be arrived at?

Mr Ong Teng Cheong: Mr Speaker, Sir, as I have mentioned earlier and on some other occasions, transport considerations although important are not the only factors that will have to be considered in making a decision. As I have mentioned earlier, Phase A Study will show us how an all-bus system will cope with the projected transport demand in the 1980s and in the 1990s. It will not look into the financial implications of the all-bus system nor will it look into the financial implications of the other alternative, which is the bus-rail system. This will be done in Phase B Study.

Should the findings of Phase A show that the all-bus system cannot cope satisfactorily by the late 1980s or within this decade, obviously we will have to do some quick thinking and make a decision one way or the other. But if the Study concludes that an all-bus system will be able to manage up to the early 1990s, although it may not be beyond the century but the early 1990s or mid 1990s, then we can afford to defer the decision a little bit longer. But as I have mentioned earlier, if the conclusion that an all-bus system will not be able to handle the transport demand by the late 1980s, obviously we will have to make a decision quickly.

Mr Ho See Beng: Mr Speaker, Sir, it seems to me that the Government is uncertain about when to build the MRT. If that is the case, why did the Government conduct a feasibility study in 1979?

Mr Ong Teng Cheong: Mr Speaker, Sir, the Government is just as anxious as hon. Members in wanting to come to an early decision on this project. But we must not allow our decision-making process to be constrained by our own limitations in knowledge and experience in this field and by the narrowness of our own vision, especially in the context of Singapore with the small pool of talent that we have and the small physical size of the Republic, because if it is a mistake we will have to live with it. I have mentioned again and again in this House that it is very prudent to make sure that the maximum economic advantage is achieved and this could only be done with careful study and proper timing.

Mr Ng Kah Ting: Sir, perhaps the answer to it is that the feasibility of the MRT is still under study.

Mr Ong Teng Cheong: Sir, the answer is yes: