NEW POPULATION POLICY (Review)

Dr S. Vasoo asked the Acting Minister for Health (a) whether our population target will be revised with a view to reducing future burden of the aged dependency ratio in the population; and (b) what will be the feasible population target in the long run.

The Acting Minister for Health (Mr Yeo Cheow Tong): Mr Speaker, Sir, the Ministry of Health projects that the aged dependency ratio, which is the ratio of persons aged 60 and over to persons aged 15 to 59, will rise from 0.13 in 1990 to about 0.46 in the year 2030, ie, from about eight working-age persons supporting one elderly to about two working-age persons supporting one elderly. This computation is based on the assumption that the total fertility rate will remain at an average of 1.8 and that the population will grow to about 3.2 million by the year 2025 before it starts to decline.

The objective of the New Population Policy is to raise the total fertility rate to replacement level by 1995, from its 1987 level of 1.64. If we are able to achieve this target, and maintain it on a long-term basis, the population will grow and stabilize at about 3.5 million by the year 2030. The ageing of our population will then be slowed slightly, and the aged dependency ratio will increase to 0.43 by the year 2030 before declining thereafter to about 0.40.